100 Newsletters In: What Starting Thunder Actually Taught Me

After two years and 100 issues, it's worth pausing to explain why any of this exists — and what the numbers actually show.

Why Thunder Exists at All

The origin isn't a polished founder story. It's a failure.

In my first real startup, I was convinced we had a venture-backable product — best in class, obvious to any investor who looked closely enough. The reality, visible only in hindsight, was that we were a small idea in a small market. Nobody told me that. I spent months chasing VCs with the wrong product for the wrong capital path. Had I focused on building a profitable business and done an angel round instead, we probably wouldn't have shut down.

No one wanted to snuff out my ambitious flame. But I wish they had.

After that, I went on to raise money, sell companies, and hit what I'd call the post-exit founder paradox — that disorienting moment when you've "made it" and immediately wonder what's next.

The answer turned out to be straightforward: I loved working with founders and I loved talking to capital allocators. Thunder was built to sit at that intersection — to give founders the honest read on their capital path that nobody gave me.

Where Things Stand

The milestone numbers, for context:

• 12,000+ newsletter subscribers
• 1,000+ YouTube subscribers on the Fundraising Demystified Podcast, 65 episodes in
• Thunder's team has doubled in size — capital strategy, it turns out, takes a village
• 400+ companies supported, collectively raising $1.2B+

That last number is the one worth sitting with.

What the SAFE Dilution Data Actually Shows

Raising a SAFE? The data from Carta is worth internalising before you sign anything.

Two things stand out:

• Bigger round = bigger slice of your company sold. This is obvious in theory but founders routinely underestimate the magnitude.
• SAFEs show far more variation than priced rounds. There's no tight market standard — which means negotiating from ignorance is expensive.

Median dilution by SAFE raise size:

• Under $250K: ~3.2%
• $500K–$999K: ~11.2%
• $2.5M–$5M: ~22.1%

SAFEs don't convert until the priced round, so the dilution isn't immediate — but these numbers give you a realistic anchor for what you're giving away. Experienced founders consistently get better terms. That gap is not small.

The Episode Worth Watching

Alexandria Procter, co-founder of DigsConnect — a South African PropTech that became Africa's largest student housing platform — walked through how she raised Africa's largest seed round at the time, and what it looked like to transition from CEO to CTO to author. It's a clean case study in non-linear founder paths and surprise fundraising moments.

The Signal Worth Bookmarking

Alex Hormozi on X posted a sharp framework on hitting your goals that's worth ten seconds of your time. No elaboration needed — just read it.

What Hasn't Changed

The mission is the same as issue one: make fundraising less intimidating and less frustrating for founders. The tools, the honest feedback, the direct line to what investors are actually thinking — that's what Thunder is for.

The founding logic still holds. Founders get bad advice, or no advice, at the exact moment it's most expensive. Closing that gap is the job.

Written by Jason Kirby.