What is my startup worth if I want to sell it today?

How SaaS Valuations Actually Work in 2026

There is no universal formula for what a startup is worth. What exists is a range, shaped by your metrics, your buyer pool, and market timing.

Here is where the market sits in September 2026.

SaaS multiples by segment:

• Distressed or declining: 1-2x ARR
• Stable, growing 15-25% YoY: 3-5x ARR
• Strong fundamentals, NRR above 105%, Rule of 40 positive: 5-8x ARR
• Exceptional metrics plus strategic fit: 8-12x ARR
• AI-native with strong adoption signal: 10-20x ARR (selective)

The public market median for SaaS companies meeting Rule of 40 is 6.6x trailing revenue. Companies below Rule of 40 trade at 2.3x. That gap is the clearest signal of what drives valuation.

What moves your number most:

1. Net Revenue Retention (NRR). The single most predictive metric for SaaS valuation. Median private SaaS is 101-103% NRR. Above 110% changes the multiple conversation. Above 120% puts you in a different category.

2. Buyer type. A strategic acquirer -- a company buying for product adjacency, customer access, or talent -- will typically pay 30-70% more than a financial buyer. The same business gets different numbers depending on who is in the room.

3. Growth rate. Not just current growth but the slope. A company growing 40% with a clear path to 50% gets priced differently from one growing 40% with slowing cohorts.

4. Revenue quality. Recurring vs. non-recurring. Customer concentration (no single customer above 15-20%). Net dollar retention. These are what diligence focuses on.

Services businesses: If you run a professional services, agency, or tech-enabled services business, the framework shifts. Buyers look at EBITDA, not ARR. Typical range: 4-8x EBITDA for services, with premium for recurring revenue components and defensible delivery model.

How to figure out your number: 1. Calculate your LTM ARR and NTM ARR projection 2. Calculate NRR from your last 12 months of cohort data 3. Calculate Rule of 40 (growth rate + EBITDA margin) 4. Identify 5-8 companies that would be strategic buyers of your business 5. Get a capital strategy assessment to model what a real process looks like

The number on paper and the number you get in a process are often different. A well-run process with the right buyer universe typically yields 20-40% more than a bilateral conversation with the first interested party.